Adjusting the Map: Your 2025 Mid-Year Market Check-In
A financial roadmap is only helpful if we pause occasionally to check the route.
As we reach the halfway point of 2025, it’s the perfect time to check the rearview mirror and look ahead at the road conditions—both economic and market-related—that may influence the second half of the year.
At Nash - Hasty Private Wealth Management, we believe a great financial plan isn’t static—it’s built to adjust with the terrain. Here are some of the key themes from Schwab’s 2025 Mid-Year Market Perspective and how they may relate to your plan.
1. Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Inflation Pressures
One of the year’s biggest curveballs came in April when the Trump administration rolled out significant new tariff policies. These sudden changes rattled markets and added fresh uncertainty to the economic outlook. While investor reactions have softened since, the reality remains: tariffs can raise costs, reduce consumer spending, and slow growth.
We’re also keeping an eye on:
- A proposed tax-and-spending bill that may increase federal deficits
- Labor market softening—job openings are down, and jobless claims are trending higher
- Stretched U.S. stock valuations, which could be vulnerable if economic data weakens
Yet despite all of this, markets remain near all-time highs. That’s a testament to continued earnings growth and resilient consumer spending—but it also means expectations are high, and risks are real.
2. A Turning Point for Bonds and Interest Rates
Bond markets have seen their own version of turbulence. Long-term Treasury yields recently hit levels we haven’t seen since before the 2008 financial crisis—partly due to concerns about rising debt and inflation.
Looking ahead, Schwab expects:
- The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or twice before year-end
- Market volatility to remain elevated in both equities and bonds
- Opportunities in high-quality bonds with yields in the 4.5%–5.5% range
For long-term investors—especially those focused on income in retirement—this is a reminder that high-quality bonds still play a valuable role in a diversified plan.
3. International Stocks Take the Lead
After more than a decade of U.S. market dominance, international stocks have outperformed so far in 2025. Factors like policy uncertainty in the U.S., a weaker dollar, and relatively attractive valuations overseas have shifted momentum.
If you’ve been underweight international investments, this may be a good time to review your allocation. International exposure isn’t just a checkbox—it’s an essential piece of long-term diversification.
4. What This Means for Your Plan
While no one can predict markets, we can help prepare your plan for whatever lies ahead. As Schwab’s report emphasizes, this is a great time to focus on:
- Tax-aware planning. Using tools like Roth IRAs, HSAs, and tax-efficient investments to reduce tax drag.
- Staying invested. Remaining committed to your long-term strategy, even during volatility.
- Maintaining flexibility. Having enough liquidity and stable assets in place to navigate short-term disruptions with confidence.
Final Thoughts: It’s About the Journey, Not Just the Destination
Mid-year reviews like this are why we built the GPS Retirement Roadmap™ in the first place. Just like on a road trip, it’s not enough to know where you’re going—you need to adjust along the way, stay alert to changes, and sometimes take a different route when the conditions call for it.
If you’d like to review your plan or simply talk through how these updates may affect your investments, we’re here. Let’s make sure the rest of your 2025 journey stays on track.
Ready to revisit your financial plan?
Call Danielle at 309.589.0180 to schedule your review, or send us a message. We're here to guide you—wherever life takes you.
Disclosure:
This blog post is based in part on Schwab’s “2025 Mid-Year Market Perspective” published June 13, 2025. Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. This overview is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personalized financial advice. Investing involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult Nash - Hasty Private Wealth Management to determine what’s appropriate for your specific situation.